After years of isolation and immense economic challenges imposed by international sanctions, the Syrian landscape is witnessing a landmark diplomatic and economic shift that could chart a new course towards a more prosperous future by 2045. The decision by US President Donald Trump to lift economic sanctions on Syria is not merely a political step; it is a potential launchpad for reintegrating the Syrian economy into the global system, thanks to diligent regional diplomatic efforts in which the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and His Royal Highness Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman played a pivotal role.
A Leading Role for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Breaking the Wall of Isolation
The decision to lift sanctions cannot be viewed in isolation from the active diplomatic movements led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. His Royal Highness Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s foresight and strategic vision were evident in recognizing the necessity of Syria’s return to its Arab and international fold as an integral part of regional stability and prosperity.
The available information confirms the success of Saudi diplomacy, under His Royal Highness’s leadership, in persuading US President Donald Trump to take this historic step. President Trump’s announcement of lifting sanctions from Riyadh, met with applause at the Saudi Investment Forum, followed by an unprecedented meeting between President Trump and Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa in the presence of the Saudi Crown Prince, all underscore the Kingdom’s pivotal role in facilitating this opening. This has significantly boosted hopes of ending decades of Syrian economic isolation from the global financial and trade systems.
The Sanctions: A Historical Burden Lifted
To understand the magnitude of this shift, it is essential to recognize the nature of the sanctions that weighed heavily on the Syrian economy. Sanctions had accumulated since the 1980s and 1990s and deepened significantly after 2011. These restrictions included an arms embargo, asset freezes, restrictions on financial transactions, and a ban on exporting dual-use items under the Syria Accountability Act, due to alleged support for Hezbollah and interference in Lebanese affairs.
Post-2011, comprehensive sanctions were imposed targeting economic, financial, and military sectors. The Caesar Act, in particular, imposed strict penalties on anyone cooperating with the regime in areas like construction, energy, and infrastructure. Additionally, Syria was disconnected from the SWIFT banking system and faced a ban on US dollar transactions. These sanctions effectively constituted an economic siege that stifled opportunities for growth and recovery, depriving Syria of access to global markets and the necessary capital for reconstruction and development.
Opening New Economic Horizons: The Post-Sanctions Era
Lifting this historical burden represents a fundamental transformation that carries immense potential for the future. What does this practically mean for the economy?
Firstly, lifting the sanctions will end the near-total reliance of the Syrian economy on a few limited regional and international powers, which could contribute to achieving greater balance and desired regional stability.
Secondly, the lifting opens the door for Syria’s gradual reintegration into the global financial and trade systems. While the process will not be without its challenges and will require significant efforts from financial institutions to navigate evolving regulations and carefully assess risks, it is the first step towards restoring vital economic arteries.
Thirdly, with the lifting of sanctions, Syria becomes more attractive to foreign investors. The scale of destruction and the need for reconstruction is estimated in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Estimates suggest that lifting sanctions could allow international companies, including American ones, to compete for reconstruction contracts valued at around $400 billion. This potential inflow of capital can revitalize various economic sectors, create jobs, and contribute to growth.
Fourthly, lifting restrictions will improve access to essential goods and services that Syrians suffered shortages of due to import difficulties. This will directly improve the living standards of citizens.
Fifthly, there are positive initial indicators, such as the notable improvement in the Syrian pound against the dollar in the parallel market following the announcement of sanction relief. This indicates the potential for greater monetary stability after years of hyperinflation and loss of purchasing power.
Sixthly, lifting sanctions provides a vital opportunity to revitalize the oil and gas industry, which was a primary source of income before the crisis. Reactivating this sector and exporting production can generate significant revenues that contribute to financing reconstruction and development efforts.
Seventhly, lifting sanctions will facilitate the work of humanitarian aid organizations, allowing for more effective and efficient delivery of assistance to Syrians in need.
Syria 2045: A Vision for a Promising Future
Looking ahead to 2045, years from now, we can expect Syria to have made significant progress in its journey of recovery and reconstruction, capitalizing on this economic opening. Analytical studies, such as those from the Jusoor Center for Studies, indicate that lifting sanctions paves the way for a significant rebound in the Syrian economy, the possibility of the banking system’s engagement with the international financial system, revitalized trade, and the attraction of foreign investment. The study also anticipates the activation of vital sectors such as oil and gas, telecommunications, and technology, which will enhance opportunities for technological development in a country exhausted by years of conflict.
In the vision for Syria 2045, we look forward to a country that has regained its economic health, its modern infrastructure, and its cities vibrant with life once more. We look forward to a diversified economy, no longer reliant on a single sector, but benefiting from its strategic location, resources, and the capabilities of its people. We look forward to a Syria fully integrated into the global economy, actively participating in regional and international trade and investment. We look forward to a new generation of Syrians enjoying better job opportunities, higher living standards, and full access to education and healthcare.
Conclusion: The Start of a Journey Towards the Future
The decision to lift sanctions on Syria, which came as a culmination of pioneering regional diplomatic efforts led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, undoubtedly represents a historic turning point. It is not the end of challenges, but the beginning of the journey towards the future. A journey that requires strong will, sound planning, and international and regional cooperation to build upon the available opportunities. Vision Syria 2045 is no longer just a distant dream; it has become a goal that can be worked towards, starting from this important step that opens new horizons for recovery and prosperity. Our optimism for Syria’s future is based on the resilience of the Syrian people and their capacity for endurance, and on the immense economic opportunities that are now within reach, supported by renewed Arab and international backing. The road is long, but the beginning inspires hope, and hope is the fuel of the future
